NS
National Storage Affiliates Trust (NSA)·Q3 2025 Earnings Summary
Executive Summary
- Q3 2025 delivered stabilizing operations with sequential improvement: total revenue $188.7M, diluted EPS $0.17, and Core FFO/unit $0.57; same-store NOI fell 5.7% YoY on lower occupancy and higher property expenses .
- Results modestly exceeded Wall Street: revenue and EPS were above consensus; Core FFO/unit of $0.57 was above $0.558 consensus; management explicitly noted a beat on Core FFO/unit . Revenue consensus $183.8M*, EPS consensus $0.173*, Core FFO consensus $0.558*; actual: $188.7M , $0.17 , $0.57 .
- Guidance reaffirmed: FY25 Core FFO/unit $2.17–$2.23; same‑store revenue −3.0% to −2.0%, NOI −5.75% to −4.25%; diluted EPS $0.71–$0.74 .
- Catalysts: removal of 10 bps SOFR index add-on (~$1M annual interest savings) , rising contract rates, improved marketing conversion, and a new preferred‑equity JV program expected to broaden external growth .
What Went Well and What Went Wrong
What Went Well
- Core FFO/unit beat and sequential fundamentals improved; CEO: “fundamentals have found a bottom and are beginning to trend upward” .
- Digital consolidation driving demand: web shopping sessions up 23% YoY in October and conversion rate up 7.1% .
- Balance sheet/liquidity intact with
$544–$544M revolver availability and interest savings from SOFR adjustment removal ($1M annually) .
What Went Wrong
- Same-store revenue −2.6% YoY and NOI −5.7% YoY; average occupancy −150 bps YoY, period-end occupancy 84.5% (−140 bps YoY) .
- Property operating expenses up 4.9% YoY (marketing, property taxes, utilities), pressuring margins; NOI margin down 220 bps YoY to 69.0% .
- Interest expense rose to $40.5M; other property-related revenue faced difficult comps tied to tenant insurance changes, intensifying near-term revenue headwinds .
Financial Results
Q3 actuals vs S&P Global consensus
Revenue breakdown
KPIs (Same-Store)
Guidance Changes
Earnings Call Themes & Trends
Management Commentary
- “During the third quarter, the majority of our markets showed sequential improvement in same store revenue growth, which supports our view that fundamentals have found a bottom and are beginning to trend upward.” — CEO David Cramer .
- “Our positive momentum is supported by… enhanced marketing and revenue management… capital recycling… preferred investment program. Adding strategies like this will help return NSA to being a growth company.” — CEO David Cramer .
- “Subsequent to quarter-end, we amended our credit facility to remove the 10 bps SOFR index adjustment… nearly $1 million of annual interest savings.” — CFO Brandon Togashi .
Q&A Highlights
- Preferred-equity JV structure: NSA contributes 75% of equity as preferred (10% coupon), accrual in early years; many deals reach 10% by year 3; potential ROFO adds future pipeline; tenant insurance program provides incremental revenue .
- Move-in rates vs revenue: Q3 move-in rates +4.9% YoY but discounts reduced effective rates by ~100–150 bps; other property-related revenue faced tough comps; Oct move-in rates +14% YoY with ~150 bps discount impact .
- Occupancy trajectory: aiming to start 2026 closer to flat YoY (vs −150–170 bps in late 2025); focus on closing occupancy gap while maintaining rate .
- Marketing effectiveness: web sessions +23% YoY, conversion +7.1%; continued paid search investment where ROI is visible .
Estimates Context
- Q3 comparison: NSA modestly exceeded Street on revenue, EPS, and Core FFO/unit; management called out a Core FFO/unit beat .
- Forward outlook (S&P Global consensus):
- Q4 2025: Revenue $180.5M*, diluted EPS $0.1563*, Core FFO/unit $0.5458*
- Q1 2026: Revenue $181.1M*, diluted EPS $0.1528*, Core FFO/unit $0.5406*
- Q2 2026: Revenue $184.3M*, diluted EPS $0.1750*, Core FFO/unit $0.5517*
Values retrieved from S&P Global.
Key Takeaways for Investors
- Sequential stabilization with improving pricing and marketing conversion suggests trend better than mid‑year trough; expect same‑store revenue declines to moderate further into Q4 and 2026 .
- Expense pressure (taxes, utilities, marketing) remains a headwind, but guidance implies easing into Q4; monitor NOI margin recovery vs 69% exit rate .
- Interest savings (~$1M annually) and 6.7x net debt/EBITDA provide incremental support to FFO trajectory; maturities benign until H2’26 .
- Preferred‑equity JV adds a capital‑light growth avenue with potential 10%+ returns and captive pipeline; could sustain external growth without stressing leverage .
- Street estimates likely need mild upward revisions to reflect revenue and Core FFO beats and October momentum; watch discount trends and tenant insurance normalization .
- Trading lens: near‑term catalysts include Q4 same‑store improvement and visibility on JV deployments; medium‑term thesis hinges on lower supply and easing mortgage rates supporting storage demand in 2026 .
Notes:
- All figures with an asterisk are values retrieved from S&P Global.
- Document citations are provided in brackets after each figure or statement.